Non-Farm Payrolls day is either the most exciting or the most frustrating day of the month, depending on how you prepare for it. This month’s NFP release was a good one — not because I nailed it perfectly, but because I followed my process and the market cooperated.
Here’s a minute-by-minute recap of how I traded it live.
Pre-Release Setup (8:00 – 8:29 a.m. EST)
I was at my desk by 8 a.m., which is 30 minutes before the release. I don’t enter positions 30 minutes before major news — I just watch. Here’s what I was looking at:
- XAUUSD was trading in a tight $8 range around $2,472
- The consensus NFP number was 185K new jobs
- Gold had been in a mild uptrend all week, making higher lows on the 1-hour chart
- My bias was mildly bullish based on the technical structure, but I had no edge on the actual number
My game plan was simple: if the number comes in significantly lower than expected (weak dollar → gold up), I’m buying the first pullback after the initial spike. If it comes in hot (strong dollar → gold down), I’m shorting the first retrace. If it’s in-line and choppy? I sit on my hands.
I had two pending orders ready but deliberately didn’t place them until 30 seconds before the release. News spikes can trigger limit orders on false moves, and I’ve been burned by that before.
8:30 a.m. — The Number Hits
The number came out at 142K — significantly below the 185K estimate. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.1%. This was a dovish report, which typically means dollar weakness and gold strength.
Price spiked from $2,472 to $2,491 in literally 15 seconds. That’s a $19 move in the blink of an eye. I didn’t chase it. Chasing news spikes is how you buy the exact top and get stopped out on the retracement.
I already had a buy limit order sitting at $2,481, which is roughly 50% of the initial spike. I figured if this move was real, it would pull back to that level and then continue. If it didn’t pull back? I missed the trade. No big deal.
8:34 a.m. — Entry Filled
The pullback came faster than I expected. By 8:34, price had retraced to $2,479, and my buy order filled at $2,481. Stop loss went below the pre-news range low at $2,467 — $14 risk.
I’ll be honest — my hands were a little shaky in those first few minutes after entry. News trades are inherently noisy, and the first 15 minutes after NFP can reverse on you without warning. I had to remind myself that my stop was set, my risk was defined, and there was nothing to do but wait.
8:42 a.m. — First Target Hit
Eight minutes later, gold was back at $2,495 and climbing. I closed 40% of the position at $2,495, locking in about 1R on that portion. Then I moved my stop loss on the remaining 60% to breakeven at $2,483.
This is the part of news trading I find most important — taking some off when the move is working. You never know if it’s going to keep going or reverse immediately. Banking a partial profit and letting the rest ride means you’re guaranteed to finish the trade green if it works out, and you can’t lose money on the runner.
8:52 a.m. — Second Exit
Price kept climbing to $2,503, then pulled back to $2,497. I was watching the 1-minute chart for signs of momentum slowing. When I saw a series of lower highs on the 1-min candles and volume dropping off, I closed the remaining 60% at $2,498.
Total result: +$14 on the first 40%, +$17 on the remaining 60%. Blended return of about 2.1R in 22 minutes.
Not a home run, but a solid single with good process behind it.
What I Almost Did Wrong
At one point around 8:45, price hit $2,499 and I almost moved my take profit higher because “it looked like it was going to $2,510.” That’s FOMO talking, not a plan.
I caught myself and didn’t move the target. Instead, I waited for the actual price action tell — lower highs on the fastest timeframe — and exited at $2,498. Was $2,510 achievable? Maybe. But “maybe” isn’t a trading strategy. I’d rather take 2R with a plan than hope for 3R and end up giving it back.
Lessons from the Session
- Don’t chase the initial spike. The first move after news is almost always followed by a retracement. Let it come to you.
- Scale out of news trades. Volatility cuts both ways. Locking in some profit early turns a winner into a guaranteed winner.
- Have a plan before the number prints. Once the news hits, you have seconds to react. You can’t make rational decisions in 15 seconds under pressure. Write your plan down beforehand.
- Ignore the financial news headlines. The number itself matters less than how the market reacts to it. A “bad” number that gold sells off on is telling you something more important than the NFP print.
NFP trading isn’t for everyone. It’s fast, volatile, and emotional. But if you go in with a clear plan, defined risk, and the discipline to not chase, you can catch some of the biggest moves of the month without gambling your account.
Follow my live trades in real time: Join Telegram @DongyiTrade for live trade alerts and market commentary, or email me at contact@dongyitrade.com.
