May was a banger. No other way to put it. Everything that could go right basically did — the trends were clean, my entries were on point, and even the trades I lost were small and quick.
But I’m writing this report with a note of caution. My best months are usually followed by my worst months, and I know exactly why. When you have a great month, you get overconfident. You take bigger risks. You loosen your rules. Then the market humbles you.
I’m determined to not let that happen this time. Here’s the full May breakdown.
May Performance Summary
| Metric | May 2026 |
|---|---|
| Total Return | +11.3% |
| Number of Trades | 17 |
| Winning Trades | 12 |
| Losing Trades | 5 |
| Win Rate | 70.6% |
| Profit Factor | 3.4 |
| Average Win | 2.9R |
| Average Loss | 1.1R |
| Best Trade | +6.3R (XAUUSD trend long) |
| Worst Trade | -1.4R (USDJPY short) |
| Max Drawdown | -2.1% |
A profit factor of 3.4 is insane. That means for every dollar I lost, I made $3.40. Most profitable traders operate at 1.5-2.5 profit factor long-term. Anything above 3 is either luck, a great market environment, or both.
Seventeen trades is more than my usual 12-14, but not dramatically so. The difference was that the setups kept working. When you’re in a hot streak and the market is trending, it feels like everything you touch turns green.
Why May Was So Good
Let’s be honest — a lot of it was the market environment. Gold went from $2,320 to $2,480 during May. That’s a $160 move in one month. When your best pair is in a strong uptrend and you mainly trade longs, you’re going to make money.
But market environment isn’t the whole story. I also did a few things right:
1. I leaned into the trend early. By May 5th, it was clear gold was breaking out of its April consolidation. I didn’t wait for confirmation after confirmation — I took the first valid breakout setup, and then I added to the position on pullbacks. Riding the trend from the beginning is how you get 6R winners.
2. I used pyramiding correctly. I added to my winning gold positions three different times during the month. Each time, I added a smaller position size than the previous entry, and I moved my overall stop up to protect the accumulated profit. Done right, pyramiding turns good trades into great trades.
3. I cut losers fast. My average loss was only 1.1R. That’s tight. When a trade wasn’t working, I got out. I didn’t give it “more room.” I didn’t move my stop. I just accepted it and moved on. In a trending market, the next setup is usually just a day or two away anyway.
4. I stayed focused on my best pairs. 11 of the 17 trades were on XAUUSD. I didn’t get distracted by other markets or other pairs just because I was winning. I kept doing what was working.
The One Thing I’m Worried About
Here’s the catch: a 71% win rate isn’t normal. Not for me, not for anyone who trades with any kind of reasonable reward-to-risk ratio. My long-term average is around 56-58%. May’s 71% is well above that, and statistically, I should expect some reversion to the mean.
That means June and July might be tougher. Not because I’ll trade worse — though overconfidence could make me — but simply because probability catches up. You can’t win 7 out of 10 trades forever. The math doesn’t work that way.
I also noticed something subtle: by the end of May, I was taking slightly more risk per trade. Not by much — maybe 1.3% instead of 1% — but that adds up. When you’re winning, it’s easy to justify bigger position sizes. “I’m up 10%, so I can afford to risk more.” That’s how you give it all back.
Changes Coming in June
To prevent the post-hot-streak crash, I’m making these adjustments for June:
- Risk size stays at 1% per trade. No increase just because the account is bigger. My risk percentage is based on my strategy, not my recent results.
- I’m reviewing every losing trade twice. If I have a losing month, I want to know exactly why. Was it the market? Was it me? Reviewing losses more carefully when I’m on a hot streak prevents me from developing bad habits.
- I’m adding one extra day off per week. I’m going to trade only four days a week in June. When you’re overconfident, less trading is better than more trading.
The Psychology of a Good Month
The weird thing about having a great month is that it doesn’t feel as good as you’d think. Don’t get me wrong — it’s nice. The account balance is higher, I’m happy about it. But I also know that the market giveth and the market taketh away.
I’ve had 10%+ months before. I’ve also had months where I gave most of it back. The difference between now and three years ago is that now I expect the give-back. I plan for it. I reduce risk, I tighten rules, and I stay humble.
If you just had your best month ever, congratulations. Now be careful. The most dangerous time in trading is right after your biggest win. That’s when you think you’ve figured it out, and that’s when the market teaches you that you haven’t.
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